Australia's leaders aim to reverse migration for first time, experts warn of economic risks.

Australia’s political leaders are proposing to push net overseas migration into reverse for the first time in the nation’s history. Past declines only occurred during severe economic depressions and global wars. Mark Cully, an economist and author, noted that while governments reduced migration numbers in the 1970s and 80s and 90s, no administration ever attempted to halt permanent arrivals completely.

Pauline Hanson, leader of One Nation, plans to engineer a three-year reversal if her party wins government. The party’s economic team projects cutting temporary migrants by 766,000 over that period would reduce rental inflation by 6.5%. This reduction would save the average renter $54 a week after three years, according to modelling based on Reserve Bank research.

Experts warn that such a dramatic shift would damage the economy. Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, said the rental savings are plausible but come with heavy trade-offs. “There would be a big hit to exports [from the university sector] and also be a big hit to government revenue. So, economically, we would be worse off,” Tulip said. Cully added that sustained negative migration would likely trigger a prolonged economic slump.

The Coalition is racing to outbid its populist rival by pledging similar cuts. Opposition leader Angus Taylor wants to cap net overseas migration at 100,000 a year during a first term. That figure sits far below the current peak of 300,000 and the Albanese government’s target of 225,000. Taylor described the proposal as the biggest cut to immigration in the history of the country.

Business groups argue that employers now depend on temporary visa holders for flexible labour in aged care, health care and agriculture. Australia’s migration system has become unbalanced, with an uncapped temporary visa stream overwhelming a stable permanent intake of 185,000 annually. The share of temporary residents in the population doubled over the past 15 years, rising from 2.9% in 2011 to 6.6%. Including New Zealanders and tourists, that share exceeds 10%.

Alan Gamlen, director of the ANU’s migration hub, argued that policymakers need to regulate temporary arrivals instead of applying blunt cuts. “We need to focus on regulating temporary arrivals; we don’t have to slam on the brakes and crash the economy,” Gamlen said. He also questioned whether any party would actually deliver on these extreme promises, suggesting they would likely shift blame if targets prove unattainable.