Trump's immigration policies could reduce Social Security payments for seniors by $2,000 annually.

Elderly Americans will see their annual Social Security payments drop by an average of $2,152 by 2034, an 8.6% cut driven by the economic fallout from the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. The projection comes from a new economic report that ties the retirement benefit reduction directly to the departure of 1.2 million foreign-born workers over the past two years.

The sudden tightening of immigration rules has already shrunk the national labor force by an estimated 919,000 people during the 18 months of the current administration. By September 2025, native-born workers had already lost between 51,000 and 297,000 jobs. States like California, Nevada, New Jersey, Florida, and New York are feeling the strain hardest, as native-born tradespeople lose projects when immigrant roofers and carpenters disappear from the job site.

The construction sector now faces steeper bills and slower progress. The cost to build a new single-family home jumped 10.9% in 2026 compared to early 2024, pushing average project values from $305,752 to $338,752. Nationwide, permits for new single-family homes have fallen 10.6% since January 2025, with the sharpest drops in areas that depend heavily on immigrant labor. Industry experts note that building skills take years to acquire, meaning the gap cannot be filled quickly.

Food costs are climbing faster than the broader grocery market. The agricultural industry, where 68% of crop workers are foreign-born and 42% lack legal status, is struggling with severe staffing shortages. Farmers report that harvests are rotting in the fields as workers leave. Over the last 19 months, prices for immigrant-dependent foods have surged well above average grocery inflation. Fresh whole milk has risen 5.7%, canned vegetables 6.3%, and apples 7.2%.

“One thing that changed was the [immigration] policy. Before, the trend for all those goods was a lower inflation rate. And afterward, the trend was higher inflation. So the trend was reversed, and that was quite striking,” said Robert Lynch, another report author. Before Donald Trump took office in January 2025, prices for these staple foods generally rose slowly or dropped. The policy shift flipped that pattern almost immediately.

Government officials are now sounding the alarm about the long-term financial damage. Social Security trustees, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and HHS Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, warn that lower immigration rates are draining the retirement system. The federal government currently collects about $26bn in payroll taxes from unauthorized immigrants who cannot claim benefits. If the current immigration agenda continues, the report warns that higher prices, slower growth, and continued job losses will only deepen the affordability crisis for everyday Americans.